The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new estimates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) showing that production volumes are significantly lower than expected.
In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes, double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023 but still below previous estimates that projected SAF production would reach 1.5 million tonnes.
In 2025 SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes, 0.7% of total jet fuel production.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said: “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle.
“With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6% net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation.”
A recent IATA survey also showed significant public support for SAF. A total of 86% of travellers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to access SAF.
In addition, 86% agreed that oil companies should prioritise supplying SAF to airlines.
To reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA analysis shows that between 3,000-6,500 new renewable fuel plants will need to be built, costing around $128 billion per year.
“Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production. There is already a model to follow with the transition to wind and solar power. A good portion of the funding could be realised by redirecting some of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry,” said Walsh.
