Corporate travel buyers could face reduced flight options and continued fare pressure this winter as airlines reassess capacity in response to soaring fuel costs, according to aviation analyst John Strickland.

Strickland, Director of JLS Consulting, said carriers on both sides of the Atlantic may opt to remove frequencies and ground aircraft rather than discount fares to stimulate demand.

“Even with lower fares to stimulate demand, airlines would still struggle to cover the additional fuel costs,” he said in a World Aviation Festival webinar. “As a result, I think we’ll see more aircraft on the ground this winter.”

Strickland said he expects airlines to continue closely monitoring booking trends and route performance as they move beyond the peak summer season, with network decisions likely to become more challenging in the months ahead.

“I think what we’ll see this winter is a higher level of cancellations,” he said. “I don’t see airlines suddenly cutting prices left, right and centre to stimulate demand.”

The impact is unlikely to be uniform across the market. Strickland noted that fare increases have already varied by route, market and cabin class, while airlines’ exposure to fuel price volatility differs depending on their hedging strategies and ability to pass higher operating costs on to customers.

The warning comes as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts airline fuel costs will rise by almost 40% to $350 billion in 2026, accounting for more than 31% of total industry operating expenses.

Despite the financial pressures, Strickland said airlines have so far avoided the widespread operational disruption some had feared. Many carriers have mitigated the impact through fuel hedging programmes or by securing alternative fuel supplies, limiting the immediate effect on schedules.

To date, the number of frequency reductions and service withdrawals has remained relatively modest.

Strickland will continue the discussion at the World Aviation Festival, taking place in Lisbon from 13-15 October, where he will moderate a panel session on aviation growth featuring senior executives from Flair Airlines, Allegiant, Norse Atlantic Airways and beOnd.