June 15, 2024

Business air fares to and from UK will rise by 5.3% next year, says Amex GBT

Business air fares to and from the UK are forecast to rise by 5.3% in 2023, says a report out today from American Express GBT.

Its Air Monitor 2023 says the rise is due to the overall demand continuing to exceed capacity.

Across Europe as a whole, the report predicts further rises in fares on key business travel air flows driven by high fuel prices, reduced capacity, and national carriers’ strong footprints within their home countries. 

Europe to North America routes are expected to see modest rises of 3.7%, while intra-Europe flights could see stronger price rises as high as 6% in the business cabin and 5.5% in economy, as airline capacity recovery lags behind the resurgence of demand.

For US domestic fares, Amex GBT is forecasting moderate rises of 3.4% in business and 2.9% in economy as more capacity comes online in 2023. 

In Asia, price rises are forecast to be sharper, with flights to and from Europe up 12% in economy and 7.6% in business cabins.

Asia-North America flights are also slated to see significant rises – 5.6% business, 9.8% economy – while Australian domestic flights are forecast to rise by a dramatic 19.4% in the business cabin.

Some countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been slower to reopen after COVID-19 travel restrictions, and an increase in demand combined with relatively strong economic prospects could put upwards pressure on prices. 

The forecasts combine historical transaction data with IATA booking demand and capacity constraints, macroeconomic variables including per capita GDP and key inputs such as the price of oil.