We used to plan for uncertainty. Now, we operate in it.

Just weeks ago, markets were in free fall and business travel buyers were bracing for impact. Today, some of that panic has abated – but the anxiety hasn’t.

Donald Trump’s renewed attack on global trade – marked by new tariffs, nervous investors, and a growing US deficit – isn’t a sideshow. It’s now centre stage. And it’s already reshaping how companies think about growth, risk, and the value of travel.

If Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs marked the start of a prolonged economic realignment – as many believe – then business travel leaders will need to do more than adjust budgets. They’ll need to rethink some core assumptions.

Some early signs are already here. Since April 2, several companies have tightened approvals and are prioritising revenue-generating travel, while pulling back on internal trips and committing more cautiously to meetings. In a market this reactive, business travel has moved beyond logistics – it’s become a lens for understanding a company’s priorities.

This isn’t a repeat of the pandemic years – but it’s not the relative calm of 2023 either. The volatility is real, and not just in the US. The European Central Bank has now cut rates for the eighth time in a year, amid cooling inflation, a stronger euro, and sluggish business investment. Confidence, it seems, is contagious in both directions.

Volatility isn’t just macroeconomic. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is rattling markets and fuelling oil price anxiety, adding yet more layers of risk to the mix. In 2025, uncertainty isn’t just a factor – it’s the backdrop. And the best travel programmes aren’t just responding to it – they’re building strategies designed to flex with it.

Here’s how this moment demands a different response.

Travel leaders must act as strategic interpreters. They have the data, the visibility, and – more often than pre-Pandemic – the trust of senior leaders. When supply chains shift or expansion plans stutter, it’s travel teams who can help translate corporate ambition into operational reality.

At the same time, we’re seeing a divergence between goods-based industries – like manufacturing and energy – and service-based businesses. Companies dealing in physical products and just-in-time supply chains are already adapting to tariff pressures, reshoring production, and expanding domestic operations. That creates new travel patterns, fresh supplier requirements, and different risk profiles.

Meanwhile, cross-border investment is changing shape. Some major investors are reallocating funds away from the US in response to debt levels and political unpredictability – creating stronger short-term demand in Europe and parts of Asia.

“The lessons of recent years – from Covid to cost inflation – have given travel leaders a stronger voice and clearer mandate”

Travel teams need to track that movement closely. It could mean adjusting sourcing strategies, building new partner ecosystems, or reallocating internal resources.

And finally, programme effectiveness needs a new lens. Instead of focusing on volume or cost alone, ask different questions:

• Does your approval process reflect today’s priorities?

• Are your regional suppliers aligned with shifting growth patterns?

• Do your policies support today’s business goals – or are they just based on old habits?

This is how travel becomes an enabler – not just a facilitator. And it’s a mindset shift many teams are already embracing.

The lessons of recent years – from Covid to cost inflation – have given travel leaders a stronger voice and clearer mandate.

They’re no longer just managing movement. They’re guiding judgment. They know where flexibility adds value and where discipline matters. Some travel managers, though not enough, understand which trips unlock growth – and which don’t. That’s not just useful in times of change. It’s essential.

Of course, challenges remain. Anecdotally, meetings spend is tightening. Confidence in transatlantic business is under pressure. And for all the headlines about tariff delays or temporary pauses, many leaders are still waiting for the next shoe to drop.

But this isn’t a moment to wait. It’s a moment to lead. Because the best strategies aren’t built in certainty – they’re built to survive without it.

Martin Ferguson is Managing Partner Kintela Group, a new communications and events specialist. He was previously VP Global Communications, Public Affairs and Global Events for American Express GBT.