Reaching net zero by 2050 is a big ask. It requires airlines to make unparalleled capital investment in transitioning away from fossil fuels – one estimate goes as high as €2.4 trillion – while at the same time demand for air travel continues to grow.

The bottom line is that airlines will not achieve their ambitious target alone. They need financial institutions to step up and for governments to offer subsidies, to incentivise cleaner fuels and technology, and disincentivise the continued use of fossil fuels through stronger carbon pricing.

Tim Johnson, Director of the Aviation Environmental Federation, sums up the current situation when he says: “Beyond the short-term focus on scaling SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), there’s insufficient long-term investment in bringing cleaner technologies to market and outright opposition to carbon pricing mechanisms that would help incentivise the industry to decarbonise.”

The UK Jet Zero strategy will only halve the industry’s peak emissions in 2019 by the target year of 2050 through in-sector measures. Similarly, SAF targets globally are only aiming for 5%–10% by 2030.

While SAF has been hailed as the saviour for the industry, its success has been marred by high cost and lack of availability. Clean alternatives, such as electric aircraft and hydrogen, will not be ready to scale by 2050.

“Net zero 2050 has never been about getting the sector to fully decarbonise by this time. Most roadmaps forecast significant residual CO2 emissions”

Alexandre de Joybert, Director of Sustainability at ACI EUROPE, highlights the need for a collective effort if 2050 is to be a realistic and achievable target for net zero aviation in Europe. It hangs on decisive action being significantly scaled up across both industry and policy stakeholders.

“Close collaboration among policymakers, investors, energy producers, airlines and airports is essential to secure long-term funding, expand renewable energy and SAF infrastructure, and accelerate the deployment of emerging technologies,” he says.

Today, SAF makes up about 0.2% of aviation fuel and scaling production requires not only hundreds of billions of investment but also reliable feedstocks. Corporate purchasing has been one way to help scale production, but again, it’s not enough.

Collective strength

There are pockets of positive change and optimism. For example, attempting to galvanise the industry is Destination 2050, an alliance bringing together Europe’s airlines, airports, aerospace manufacturers and air navigation service providers with ACI EUROPE as one of its founding partners. This body is committed to achieving climate-neutral European aviation in line with EU climate goals and the Paris Agreement.

“The alliance has outlined a clear roadmap showing that the pathway to climate neutrality remains within reach,” says de Joybert. “A combination of four key measures will be essential to achieving substantial CO2 emissions reductions: advances in aircraft and engine technology, improvements in air traffic management and operations, large-scale adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, and economic measures, like EU ETS and CORSIA.” [CORSIA is ICAOs offsetting scheme]

There is no one silver bullet to increase fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. Instead there are multiple levers. “The key point here is that while we should rightly champion any innovations that are advancing and could have a significant impact, we need multiple innovations to help decarbonise the sector,” says Lahiru Ranasinghe, Director of Sustainability at easyJet.

Quick fixes

Leaving SAF aside for the moment, the other three drivers can be actioned without delay. Contrail [condensation vapour trail] prevention is one such, which makes up non-CO2 emissions. A study led by Google Research and Breakthrough Energy, together with support from American Airlines, found that by using AI-based predictions to make small modifications to routes that were projected to create contrails, their formation could be reduced by 54%, although avoidance burned 2% additional fuel.

Other recent studies have shown that only a small percentage of flights need to be adjusted to avoid the majority of contrail warming. There were encouraging results from a small group of American pilots who flew 70 test flights over six months, according to Jill Blickstein, Vice President Sustainability at American Airlines.

“There is no one silver bullet to increase fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. Instead there are multiple levers”

“While there are more questions to answer about how to operationalise contrails avoidance, we’re excited to have played a role in establishing their first proof point,” she said at the time. “And we’re looking forward to sharing what we learned with stakeholders in the aviation industry and beyond.”

Virgin Atlantic runs a Contrail Impact Task Force, sharing research and turning it into actionable changes.       

Advances in aircraft and engine technology is farther advanced, with fleet renewal a major plank of most airlines’ environmental strategy.

easyJet points to modern aircraft, such as Airbus NEO models, being up to 13% more efficient and 50% quieter. Both easyJet and Virgin have invested in these new aircraft.

Software upgrades like Descent Profile Optimisation have helped easyJet reduce carbon emissions by 800,000 tonnes within its own operation. And it has made huge strides in developing carbon removal and hydrogen-powered engine technology through partnerships with 1PointFive and Rolls-Royce.

Etihad, meanwhile, took delivery in July of the first of 20 A321LR, an aircraft that achieves at least 20% lower fuel consumption and CO2 emissions compared with previous generation single-aisle aircraft.

To meet its 2050 goal, United Airlines expects to take delivery of over 600 new narrow body and widebody aircraft by the end of 2033, with an expected 20% improved fuel efficiency per seat compared to older types. This fleet renewal plan will help the airline reach 21% of its forecasted emissions reductions by 2050.

Virgin Atlantic is transforming its fleet with 74% next generation aircraft, improving carbon efficiency by 20% over the last decade. It is aiming to achieve 15% gross reduction in carbon emissions per revenue tonne kilometre.

Not enough

This year the fuel airlines use to fly to EU airports, including the UK and Switzerland, must be at least 2% SAF but it’s three to five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel and it will take years to develop the infrastructure to meet required production volumes. It means that airlines will not be able to adopt SAF at the scale needed to meet net-zero and decarbonisation targets.

“There is so much noise around the many different types of feedstocks, buying mechanisms, accounting guidelines that it’s difficult for stakeholders to get their head around SAF,” explains Delphine Millot, Senior Vice President Advocacy and Sustainability and MD GBTA Foundation.

Countries such as the Netherlands and the UK are at the forefront of significant investments in SAF infrastructure, with production capacity ramping up in APAC region countries, specifically China and Singapore. The UK has a £63 million funding boost for new SAF projects. The EU reckons some €100bn is needed by 2035 to drive SAF production.

“There is so much noise around the many different types of feedstocks, buying mechanisms, accounting guidelines that it’s difficult for stakeholders to get their head around SAF”

Ranasinghe at easyJet points to Exolum’s launch of the UK’s first independent SAF blending facility, expansion of SAF availability at major European airports by Signature Aviation, and the EU’s “ReFuelEU” initiative reporting record SAF use ahead of the 2025 2% blending mandate. “But we need to see much more,” he says.

November’s European Commission announcement, under the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP), was welcome news. It attempts to remove key investment barriers and bridge the financial gap in the short-term, mobilising close to €3bn of funds available until the end of 2027. It will also see the launch of an eSAF Early Movers Coalition pilot project before the year end, to mobilise at least €500m for synthetic aviation fuel projects.

Travel managers can do their bit too, by purchasing more SAF (which helps their Scope 3 targets), report annually on social and environmental risks under the new CSRD legislation (currently those non-EU companies with a turnover in excess of €450m but from 2030 it will include SMEs), and drive behavioural change to multi-modal journeys.

Changing minds

The GBTA has come to the rescue with a toolbox to help behavioural change.

“The toolbox indicates how travel policies can be optimised to encourage multi-modal journeys or even a shift from air to rail when such alternatives are available,” says Millot.

Today, meeting the 2050 zero emissions target looks unlikely but AEF’s Tim Johnson says: “Net zero 2050 has never been about getting the sector to fully decarbonise by this time. Most roadmaps forecast significant residual CO2 emissions that will need to be balanced with greenhouse gas removals, like direct air capture.”

Interim targets would stop the industry’s delay tactics in the hope that solutions would be found in the future.

Governments need to step up, as outlined, while more joined-up thinking between other government departments and agencies such as energy and industrial policies would help too, say the experts.

“Talking to energy and climate departments outside of transport ministries will be key to effective planning,” says Johnson.

There’s still a long way to go and airlines cannot absorb the green premium alone.