Global SAF production figures are notoriously difficult to find and even harder to predict but they are possible to follow if you look in the right places.

Over 200 companies have announced their intention to develop sustainable fuel facilities since 2015, although only 20 have so far made it into production.

Real fuel is certainly flowing now, and global volumes have been doubling each year for the past three years. The key figure we’ve been monitoring is whether SAF production could make it through 1 million tonnes in 2024 – which has recently been achieved.

However, rather than a positive message of hope and optimism, this became lost last week when IATA chose to issue a press release with the headline ‘Disappointingly Slow Growth in SAF Production’.

But hold on. This is against IATA’s own forecast of 1.5 million tonnes made last December 2023, and updated as recently as June 2024, when IATA doubled-down on its prediction and issued another press release sticking to its original forecast with the headline: ‘SAF Production to Triple in 2024’ and saying everything was still on track.

IATA must have got this forecast completely wrong as there was no way in June 2024 that an additional 800,000 tonnes (at least) of new SAF was going to be produced from new facilities in the six months remaining.

Rather than apologise for getting its forecast wrong, IATA chose a negative story blaming slow growth and US production being pushed back.

Subsequent media followed the IATA lead and resulted in more doom and gloom, whereas the message should have been positive.

The challenge for corporate travel is that doom and gloom stories do not inspire action. The facts are that SAF is real and here now and is available in sufficient volume for any corporate client wishing to make a voluntary direct purchase – paying the SAF premium – to claim a direct reduction in company Scope 3 emissions.   

It would have been good if IATA had taken the opportunity last week to promote SAF progress, rather that covering up the error in its forecast.

That all said, we are heading into the new year with the very real possibility of reaching 2 million tonnes before the end of 2025. Who knows, we may even be on a trajectory of doubling each year to reach 30 million tonnes by the end of 2030.

Hope and optimism, remember!